Photo by magic-8ball.com
Hello! It’s been quite a while since this little newsletter has landed in your inbox. A whole lot of tragedy, confusion, and, quite frankly, callous behavior has been on display across America these past couple of months. Of course, we’ve also seen heroics, selflessness, and hope creep into the national consciousness in spurts as well.
If you’ll allow me to get slightly personal for a moment, I can tell you that the COVID-19 pandemic has worn on my mental health. I am lucky and privileged in that I have been on furlough for the past eight weeks, staying at home, out of harm’s way physically.
But the constant stream of sad and scary news has often reduced me to a ball of anxiety and fatalism, capable of accomplishing little more in a given day than bathing and napping. I worry about my loved ones and I hurt for those who have experienced terrible loss throughout this crisis.
I’ve also experienced moments of anger and rage, both at the national elected officials who have shown incompetence and indifference at seemingly every turn, and at the situation in general, the amount of needless suffering that has swept the globe.
Sometimes being an empath is a bum gig.
Photo by Priscilla Du Preez on Unsplash
Enough about me, though. I hope that everyone reading this newsletter is healthy, safe, and doing their best to cope with the uncertainty of the moment. Whether you’ve been furloughed like me or working throughout the crisis, I’d imagine these past couple of months have had an impact on you.
Besides my personal reasons for not having written, I must admit that putting together any coherent thoughts on the future of cities in the Rust Belt has been next to impossible given that we largely still don’t know what the long term implications of the pandemic are going to be on the region and the country as a whole.
There have been a slew of pronouncements from thought leaders and experts; everything from the death of the city and density to the death of the suburbs and auto-centric development.
I even (foolishly) read through a long thread of replies on Twitter to someone who made the argument that Jane Jacobs’ classic tome on urbanism, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, is a terrible book (more on that next week).
Basically, no one knows anything right now. We have some ideas of trends that may accelerate or decline based upon the pandemic, have witnessed promising new models for moving forward in more equitable ways, and formed opinions on what we believe should come out of this time. But everything is just a guess.
About all we can know for certain is that most of our predictions will likely be wrong. Or as Yascha Mounk said in an article in The Atlantic, "I wouldn’t rule out truly historic transformations — just our ability to know what they will be."
With that in mind, I’m not going to make any predictions today. But I am going to offer a few observations based on how our lives and cities have been affected and what we think we know right now about moving forward with the virus still very much a risk.
We need parks
Whether urban or suburban, the importance of outdoor recreational space has been made abundantly clear. Every person should have access to such a space, and cities and placemakers would do well to lay out plans to ensure that all citizens be within at most a mile from a public park.
In addition to the physical health aspects that such plans would help to improve, there are very real benefits to mental health, the environment, and the economy that could be realized.
“High quality public spaces — well-designed, staffed, and maintained — must be delivered to every neighborhood, in every city, as a fundamental human right,” says Reimagining the Civic Commons.
Photo by Karolis Vaičiulis on Unsplash
We need room for people
As social distancing has become a part of everyday life, it has become apparent that much of our people-focused infrastructure is insufficient. Sidewalks are not wide enough to give six feet of distance, walking and biking can present challenges in coexisting, and businesses need more space to comply with new public health regulations.
There is a simple solution to these issues: reclaim public land from cars.
Narrower roads reduce speeds. Congestion reduces vehicle miles traveled. Sidewalks, bike lanes, trails, parklets, patios, and pedestrianized streets put the focus back where it belongs, which is on people. Giving people more and better space for both mobility and socially-distanced congregation may well be a salve for some businesses, with the added benefit of increasing the vitality of street life.
As Sam Gill, senior vice president and chief program officer of the Knight Foundation, said, “These spaces will be key to supporting socially connected, healthy communities.”
We need a smarter approach to development
Local governments are facing the harsh reality of the current financing model for development and services. Tax receipts are taking a massive hit across the country as businesses have been forced to close, and it is probable that a number of those will not reopen.
The monstrous amounts of debt that cities have taken on, both for new development and upkeep of existing development, have essentially rendered most financially insolvent, as explained by Charles Marohn in his book Strong Towns: A Bottom-Up Revolution to Rebuild American Prosperity.
A new approach to development is needed if cities are going to weather the financial storm of recession (depression?) set off by the pandemic, one in which priority is given to small, incremental improvements.
The cultivation of resilience in our communities is tied to the ability to adapt, which cannot be achieved with archaic, restrictive regulations, huge “silver bullet” projects that mortgage the future, or ignoring the way people and places actually work in favor of abstract theorizing.
“To make our communities not just solvent but financially strong and resilient, we must increase our wealth without increasing — and perhaps even by decreasing — our expenses,” Marohn writes. “Instead of focusing on new growth, we need to obsess about making more productive use of that which we’ve already built.”
Photo by DJ Johnson on Unsplash
We need discussions in good faith
One of the sentiments we’ve seen a lot the past few months is that “we’re all in this together,” but that’s a fallacy. Our national politics is a dumpster fire of competing egos, lacking basic human empathy and operating in bad faith. We’re not all in this together, as Washington has made abundantly clear.
So it’s on us, locally, to do the hard work, make the tough choices, and determine what kind of places we want to live in. In order for that to happen, we actually do need to feel that we are in this together. We must have discussions in good faith, be as inclusive as possible in decision making, and create a sense of community.
Simply put, we have an opportunity to come out the other side of this crisis in better shape than when it began, but we must actively choose to do so. We have an opportunity to make our cities more livable, more prosperous, and more open to people of all walks of life.
It will not be remotely easy.
It begs the question of whether we’re even capable of working in concert towards a better collective future anymore.
I’m not certain that’s the case, but for the record, I hope we find that that’s a question we can answer with a resounding “Yes!” I hope we can find a way to be in this together.
Thanks for reading!
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No Predictions, Just Observations
How many answers are there in the Magic 8 Ball?
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In the realm of mystical and whimsical divination tools, the Magic 8 Ball stands out as an iconic and enigmatic oracle. This spherical fortune-teller has been a source of amusement and intrigue for decades, providing answers to burning questions with a simple shake. As we delve into the fascinating world of the Magic 8 Ball, one question that frequently arises is, "How many answers are there in the Magic 8 Ball?" In this comprehensive article, we will unravel the mysteries behind the Magic 8 Ball's responses, exploring its origins, mechanics, and the intriguing array of answers it offers.
The Genesis of the Magic 8 Ball
The Magic 8 Ball has a rich history that traces its origins back to the mid-20th century. The device was invented by Albert C. Carter, whose mother, inspired by a novelty item she had encountered, came up with the idea of a fortune-telling ball. Carter, along with his brother-in-law, Neil Rabens, founded a novelty and toy company called Alabe Crafts. In 1950, the first version of the Magic 8 Ball was introduced to the market under the name "Syco-Seer."
The original design consisted of a cylindrical case with a 20-sided die floating in liquid. Each face of the die featured a different response, and users would ask a yes-or-no question before turning the ball upside down and peering through a clear window to reveal the answer. The initial set of responses was a modest collection of affirmations, denials, and non-committal statements.
The Evolution of Answers
Over the years, the Magic 8 Ball has undergone several transformations, both in terms of its physical design and the range of answers it provides. The shift from the 20-sided die to a icosahedral shape marked a significant change in the number of possible responses. With each face of the die representing a unique answer, the total number of responses expanded, introducing a more diverse set of outcomes.
The classic responses include staples like "Yes," "No," and "Ask again later," but the Magic 8 Ball's charm lies in its whimsical and playful nature. Responses such as "Outlook not so good," "Cannot predict now," and "Better not tell you now" add a touch of mystery and amusement to the fortune-telling experience.
The Magic 8 Ball's Answer Mechanics
Understanding the mechanics behind the Magic 8 Ball's responses is key to comprehending the range of answers it offers. The icosahedral die inside the ball is marked with various responses, and its buoyancy in the liquid creates the dynamic element of the fortune-telling process.
When a user poses a question and shakes the Magic 8 Ball, the die floats to the top, bringing one of its faces into view through the clear window. The answer that appears is determined by the position of the die at that moment. The liquid inside the ball ensures that the die's movement is sufficiently random, adding an element of unpredictability to the responses.
Counting the Answers
The fundamental question remains: How many answers does the Magic 8 Ball have? The shift from the original 20-sided die to the icosahedral design expanded the range of responses significantly. The newer version boasts 20 faces, each featuring a distinct answer. This means that there are a total of 20 possible outcomes when using the Magic 8 Ball.
Let's take a closer look at some of the classic responses that contribute to the magical allure of the 8 Ball:
Yes
No
Ask again later
Cannot predict now
Don't count on it
My sources say no
Outlook not so good
Yes, definitely
Most likely
Outlook good
Yes, in due time
Definitely not
Better not tell you now
Reply hazy, try again
Concentrate and ask again
Ask someone else
Yes, but proceed with caution
No, and it's not looking good
Absolutely
It is certain
These responses cover a spectrum of possibilities, from clear affirmations and denials to more ambiguous and whimsical answers. The variety adds an element of unpredictability to the Magic 8 Ball's predictions, making it an entertaining and lighthearted tool for seeking guidance.
The Cultural Impact of the Magic 8 Ball
Beyond its role as a fortune-telling toy, the Magic 8 Ball has become a cultural phenomenon, making appearances in various forms of media, including movies, TV shows, and literature. Its quirky responses and mystical aura have made it a symbol of playful curiosity and a source of nostalgic delight for many.
The Magic 8 Ball's influence extends to popular culture, where its distinctive shape and vibrant blue color have become instantly recognizable. It has become a staple in gift shops, novelty stores, and even board games, further solidifying its place in the collective imagination.
The Psychology of the Magic 8 Ball
While the Magic 8 Ball is undoubtedly a lighthearted and entertaining diversion, its popularity raises interesting questions about human psychology. Why do people turn to a plastic ball for answers? The appeal of the Magic 8 Ball lies in its simplicity and the element of chance it introduces into decision-making.
In a world often filled with uncertainty, the Magic 8 Ball provides a whimsical way to navigate the unknown. The act of posing a question and receiving a random response can be a cathartic and amusing way to approach dilemmas, especially when the answers range from the decisive "Yes" or "No" to the more elusive "Ask again later" or "Reply hazy, try again."
DIY Magic 8 Ball and Customization
For those seeking a more personal touch, the world of do-it-yourself (DIY) Magic 8 Balls offers an opportunity to customize responses. Crafters and hobbyists can create their own version of the iconic divination tool, choosing and personalizing the answers to align with their sense of humor, interests, or unique outlook on life.
Customizing a Magic 8 Ball involves creating a new set of responses and replacing the original die with one that reflects the individual's preferences. This DIY approach allows for a more tailored and personalized experience, adding an extra layer of enjoyment to the fortune-telling process.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the Magic 8 Ball continues to captivate and entertain people of all ages, offering a delightful blend of nostalgia, whimsy, and a touch of mystery. With its origins dating back to the mid-20th century, this iconic fortune-telling toy has evolved over the years, both in terms of its design and the number of answers it provides.
The Magic 8 Ball's icosahedral die, featuring 20 distinct responses, ensures a diverse range of outcomes when seeking guidance or simply indulging in a moment of playful curiosity. From the straightforward "Yes" or "No" to the more enigmatic "Ask again later" and "Reply hazy, try again," the Magic 8 Ball adds a touch of magic to decision-making.
As we explore the cultural impact and psychology behind the Magic 8 Ball, it becomes clear that its enduring popularity is rooted in its ability to offer a whimsical escape from the uncertainties of life. Whether used for fun, as a conversation starter, or as a quirky gift, the Magic 8 Ball remains a timeless and cherished part of our collective imagination. So, the next time you find yourself pondering a question, give the Magic 8 Ball a shake and embrace the magic within its spherical wisdom.